The Next Big One?

13704 days 14 hours 6 minutes 15 seconds until the next big one?


A colossal earthquake that caused damage from South Carolina to Washington D.C. and temporarily reversed the course of the Mississippi River nearly two centuries ago could be repeated within the next 50 years, scientists said today.

Strain is building on a fault near Memphis, Tennessee that was the site of a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in 1812, according to new observations that settle a debate on the risk of another huge quake.

The odds of another 8.0 event within 50 years are between 7 and 10 percent, geologists said today. The assessment, based on new data from a recently installed array of sensors, puts to rest a 1990s claim that strain was not increasing.

Well, I live a little east of New Madrid.  It would shake things here, but shouldn’t hurt too bad.  Once you start getting into the mountains, the texture of the Earth changes and kind of absorbs the shake a lot better.  However, this would prove catastrophic IMO.  We just don’t prepare for earthquakes in the east like they do in the west.  Memphis, St. Louis, Nashville, Louisville, and Cincinnati are all right in the heart of the New Madrid fault.  That could be very nasty.

However, they’ve been predicting a killer quake in California my entire life.  They are putting the chances of a killer quake on New Madrid in the next 50 years at about 7 to 10 per cent ( depending on who you ask ).   My bet is it’s lower.

Until then, I would like to see that area ( my own included ), better prepare for quakes.