A lot’s being made of the Georgia 6th special primary to replace Tom Price. Notably that a Democrat won the “jungle primary”.
- For starters, I hate elections that dick around with the election process. I don’t know if parties were held to their party or not. Some states do, some states don’t. However, given the nature of the 50% rule, I would imagine the Democrats stuck to their party to get Ossoff over the threshold whereas Republicans were probably voting their party to keep Ossoff from getting there.
- Second, out of the approximately 700,000 people in that district, less than 200,000 voted. 26% on a special election isn’t terribly bad, but isn’t anything to get excited about for sure. My gut feeling is the runoff will probably get a fairly higher percentage. Maybe 35% now that the local Republicans feel challenged. 40% if it gets really heated. That, I do expect. This district has in the past, during contested races, hit those percentages easily.
- When the voters do turn out there, it gets very Republican very quick. Price routinely got in excess of 200,000 votes. If his machine gets his people out, this is a blowout.
Democrat Jon Ossoff 48.10% 92,390 Republican Karen Handel 19.80% 37,993 Republican Bob Gray 10.80% 20,755 Republican Dan Moody 8.80% 16,994 Republican Judson Hill 8.80% 16,848 Republican Kurt Wilson 0.90% 1,812 Republican David Abroms 0.90% 1,637 Democrat Ragin Edwards 0.30% 502 Democrat Ron Slotin 0.30% 488 Republican Bruce LeVell 0.20% 455 Republican Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan 0.20% 414 Republican Keith Grawert 0.20% 414 Republican Amy Kremer 0.20% 349 Republican William Llop 0.20% 326 Democrat Rebecca Quigg 0.20% 304 Democrat Richard Keatley 0.10% 227 Republicans 97997 Democrats 93911
- Although Ossoff has raised millions, almost all of it has come from places that can’t vote in this race. That doesn’t really do as much for him as you’d think. Although it buys tons of advertising, people very quickly tune that out. There’s only so much election day advertising anyone can do to actually get their voters out to vote. Secondly, don’t think for one second Handel won’t use the outside meddling against Ossoff. That is already a theme and they haven’t even gotten one-on-one yet. I’d have Ossoff explaining his donors for the next month. A lot has been made of him not living in the District, that only adds to the outsider meddling theme. Thirdly, we’ve already seen his best shot in my opinion. Eight million dollars got 90,000 votes. My bet is going back to the same well just got harder. It’ll be there, but not to the tune of another $8 million. Now that Handel has the focus of the RNC, look for that funding to counter Ossoff’s DNC. People have to understand that no Republican had the support of their national party. That was effectively $8,000,000 to zero.
- Bottom line, Ossoff’s one serious chance was to win this goof-ball jungle primary. Unless Handel is completely inept, which I have no clue at this point, she wins by 10% or more.