About that Georgia 6th special primary

A lot’s being made of the Georgia 6th special primary to replace Tom Price.  Notably that a Democrat won the “jungle primary”.

  • For starters, I hate elections that dick around with the election process.  I don’t know if parties were held to their party or not.  Some states do, some states don’t.  However, given the nature of the 50% rule, I would imagine the Democrats stuck to their party to get Ossoff over the threshold whereas Republicans were probably voting their party to keep Ossoff from getting there.
  • Second, out of the approximately 700,000 people in that district, less than 200,000 voted.  26% on a special election isn’t terribly bad, but isn’t anything to get excited about for sure.  My gut feeling is the runoff will probably get a fairly higher percentage.  Maybe 35% now that the local Republicans feel challenged.  40% if it gets really heated.  That, I do expect.  This district has in the past, during contested races, hit those percentages easily.
  • When the voters do turn out there, it gets very Republican very quick.  Price routinely got in excess of 200,000 votes.  If his machine gets his people out, this is a blowout.
  • Democrat
    Jon Ossoff
    48.10% 92,390
    Republican
    Karen Handel
    19.80% 37,993
    Republican Bob Gray 10.80% 20,755
    Republican Dan Moody 8.80% 16,994
    Republican Judson Hill 8.80% 16,848
    Republican Kurt Wilson 0.90% 1,812
    Republican David Abroms 0.90% 1,637
    Democrat Ragin Edwards 0.30% 502
    Democrat Ron Slotin 0.30% 488
    Republican Bruce LeVell 0.20% 455
    Republican Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan 0.20% 414
    Republican Keith Grawert 0.20% 414
    Republican Amy Kremer 0.20% 349
    Republican William Llop 0.20% 326
    Democrat Rebecca Quigg 0.20% 304
    Democrat Richard Keatley 0.10% 227

    Although Ossoff did well, the party as a whole still was outvoted.  With only one candidate to either support or not, those percentages weigh heavily against Ossoff.

    Republicans 97997
    Democrats 93911
  • Although Ossoff has raised millions, almost all of it has come from places that can’t vote in this race. That doesn’t really do as much for him as you’d think.  Although it buys tons of advertising, people very quickly tune that out.  There’s only so much election day advertising anyone can do to actually get their voters out to vote.  Secondly, don’t think for one second Handel won’t use the outside meddling against Ossoff.  That is already a theme and they haven’t even gotten one-on-one yet.  I’d have Ossoff explaining his donors for the next month.  A lot has been made of him not living in the District, that only adds to the outsider meddling theme.  Thirdly, we’ve already seen his best shot in my opinion.  Eight million dollars got 90,000 votes.  My bet is going back to the same well just got harder.  It’ll be there, but not to the tune of another $8 million.  Now that Handel has the focus of the RNC, look for that funding to counter Ossoff’s DNC.  People have to understand that no Republican had the support of their national party.  That was effectively $8,000,000 to zero.
  • Bottom line, Ossoff’s one serious chance was to win this goof-ball jungle primary.  Unless Handel is completely inept, which I have no clue at this point, she wins by 10% or more.

NCAA hearts a couple of teams – 2011 edition

The brackets are out for the 2011 NCAA Tournament.  Struck me as odd a couple of teams locations since the NCAA supposedly does not like giving teams a home court advantage.  Well, they did to a large degree.  How far would you drive on a whim to watch your team play in the tournament?  A couple of hours is no big deal.  Four or five makes it a little difficult.  Eight hours and you’re talking about missing work and finding babysitters.  Twelve hours?  Forget about it.  There’s a reason I ask that. Take a look at this little chart I put together:

Team Site Dist. Hours @ 50
Notre Dame Chicago, Illinois 95 2
Purdue Chicago, Illinois 124 2
North Carolina Charlotte, North Carolina 139 3
Duke Charlotte, North Carolina 142 3
Ohio State Cleveland, Ohio 143 3
Hampton Charlotte, North Carolina 157 3
Bucknell Washington, DC 185 4
Old Dominion Washington, DC 192 4
Georgia Charlotte, North Carolina 199 4
Kansas Tulsa, Oklahoma 218 4
Tennesse Charlotte, North Carolina 231 5
Pittsburgh Washington, DC 246 5
Xavier Cleveland, Ohio 246 5
Syracue Cleveland, Ohio 334 7
Akron Chicago, Illinois 368 7
Connecticut Washington, DC 376 8
George Mason Cleveland, Ohio 376 8
Indiana State Cleveland, Ohio 393 8
Memphis Tulsa, Oklahoma 402 8
Villanova Cleveland, Ohio 409 8
San Diego State Tucson, Arizona 410 8
Texas Tulsa, Oklahoma 451 9
Brigham Young Denver, Colorado 483 10
Cincinnati Washington, DC 521 10
Illinois Tulsa, Oklahoma 575 12
Butler Washington, DC 592 12
Marquette Cleveland, Ohio 612 12
Michigan Charlotte, North Carolina 614 12
Long Island Charlotte, North Carolina 646 13
Georgetown Chicago, Illinois 700 14
Utah State Tucson, Arizona 716 14
Saint Peters Chicago, Illinois 792 16
Kentucky Tampa, Florida 836 17
North Colorado Tucson, Arizona 900 18
Missouri Washington, DC 914 18
West Virginia Tampa, Florida 958 19
Florida State Chicago, Illinois 960 19
Texas A&M Chicago, Illinois 1074 21
Princeton Tampa, Florida 1090 22
Gonzaga Denver, Colorado 1091 22
Arizona Tulsa, Oklahoma 1097 22
Louisville Denver, Colorado 1111 22
Kansas State Tucson, Arizona 1151 23
Vanderbilt Denver, Colorado 1158 23
UNLV Tulsa, Oklahoma 1221 24
Morehead Denver, Colorado 1245 25
Temple Tulsa, Oklahoma 1279 26
Wofford Denver, Colorado 1506 30
Boston Tulsa, Oklahoma 1570 31
Belmont Tucson, Arizona 1613 32
Richmond Denver, Colorado 1670 33
Wisconsin Tucson, Arizona 1720 34
Oakland Tulsa, Oklahoma 1724 34
St John Denver, Colorado 1777 36
Penn State Tucson, Arizona 2284 46
UCLA Tampa, Florida 2544 51
UC Santa Barbara Tampa, Florida 2634 53
Washington Charlotte, North Carolina 2802 56

How many people will have to sacrifice much of anything at all to watch Duke and North Carolina the first round? How many Washington fans will get the same privilege?  The NCAA’s giving their pets a home court advantage.