Hurricane Gert

Check out the path Hurricane Gert took.

Now, a quick question: How many people can name at least one of the previous seven named storms this year?

Yup, most people missed eight big storms so far this year.  Gert would be the eighth.

My gripe has been storms are too easily “named”.  A storm that spins in a little circle then peters out is not something that should have ever been named.  But, because of better technology, storms get named all the time.  Because of that, we need to redefine how hurricanes are named.

This probably wouldn’t mean anything at all if SOME people didn’t run around yelling how all these “record” hurricane seasons were a vindication of Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth.

We’re not having “record” hurricane seasons, we’re having “record” hurricane naming seasons.  That is all.

Greenland – The Poster Child for Global Warming

A LOT has been made of Greenland’s ice melting.  I mean, a LOT.  National Geographic ran an in-depth article about just how bad man has destroyed Greenland just about a year ago.  Some snippets to give you an idea just how bad it is.  The headline itself starts you off:

Global Warming: Greenland: When It’s Hot

And they don’t slow down from there:

Since Steffen established Swiss Camp 16 years ago, much has changed. Global warming has evolved from an obscure concern of environmentalists to a headline-grabbing motion picture–inspiring crisis of staggering proportions. Due to something called the polar amplification effect, Greenland is heating up at an exponential rate and has become a kind of barometer for the rest of the planet. What happens here in the next ten years will answer key questions about how much the Earth will warm in the next hundred. That is why there were more scientists out on the ice this year than ever before—the United States’ National Science Foundation alone helped fund 144 researchers, three times as many as in 2000. They’re all scrambling to track the tremendous changes while working against the narrowing window between winter storms and a melt season that turns the cap into a slush field mined with scientist-swallowing crevasses.

Things are so bad in Greenland that people like Robert Roy Britt of Livescience use it as the ultimate justifcation of how stupid people are who question how much we actually know about what is going on.  He has no doubt whatsoever that the warming permafrost in Greenland is all man’s fault.

Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth cites Greenland as a prime example of what’s going on.  A lot of people just jumped on his bandwagon.  Greenland was the poster boy for everything from the warming of ocean currents to polar bears’ shinking nuts.

Only one problem tho.  It is now becoming evident, THROUGH SCIENCE, that the warming of Greenland may have nothing to do with man at all:

The newly discovered hotspot, an area where Earth’s crust is thinner, allowing hot magma from Earth’s mantle to come closer to the surface, is just below the ice sheet and could have caused it to form, von Frese and his team suggest.

“Where the crust is thicker, things are cooler, and where it’s thinner, things are warmer,” von Frese explained. “And under a big place like Greenland or Antarctica, natural variations in the crust will makes some parts of the ice sheet warmer than others.”

What caused the hotspot to suddenly form is another mystery.

“It could be that there’s a volcano down there,” he said, “but we think it’s probably just the way the heat is being distributed by the rock topography at the base of the ice.”

That article in Livescience was not written by Robert Roy Britt.  Apparently he doesn’t read the articles that don’t support is opinion.  I doubt you’ll hear any sigh of relief from Al Gore’s bunch either.

Now, at the risk of being insulted and taunted, I again will ask the same question I’ve always asked.  How much of the climate change in Greenland is actually man’s fault?  Apparently quite a bit of the fault lies with Earth.

2006 Hurricane Season

“For the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become ‘major’ hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Now, this is where the story gets weird:

U.S. hurricane experts say a sharp rise in Atlantic storm activity since about 1995 is related to a natural shift in climatic conditions and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that is expected to last from 15 to 40 years.

That part I’ve been hollering about here for a long time.  This part caught me off guard:

Some climatologists however say there are indications that human-induced global warming could be increasing the average intensity of tropical cyclones, although there is no evidence to date that it is affecting the number of hurricanes.

Wow.  Someone stating it as it is.  Don’t see that often enough.  Especially considering the media attention people like Al Gore get:

The United States is emerging from a “bubble of unreality” about the problem of global warming, former Vice President Al Gore said Saturday at the Cannes Film Festival.

Gore was in Cannes to promote the documentary “An Inconvenient Truth,” which chronicles his efforts to bring the dangers of climate change to greater attention.

What does Gore use as a backdrop to promote his new movie?

A “man-made” hurricane that destroyed New Orleans and killed 1,300 people of course.  He then promptly hopped into cars with his entourage to drive 500 feet.  Make no mistake about it, I think the climate is changing.  However, I don’t believe Al Gore and mankind can stick their finger in a dyke and stop it.  It’s been changing for all of time, and it will continue to do so.  What we need to be doing is figuring how to live with it.  That article IMO is what we need to be knowing.  Hurricanes are not a rare phenomena, but a natural part of the Earth’s climate and an important one as well ( see Somalia for reasons why ).  People like Al Gore are distracting the real message that needs to be delivered and heard.  We’re not going to stop catastrophic hurricanes.  If we did, it would cause other catastrophes.  What we need to do is stop overbuilding where we know hurricanes are prone to hit.  It’s that simple folks.

2015 Hurricane Season: Arlene

And, we’re off!

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.

Now, to put this in perspective:

Year Hurricane Began
2016 Alex 12-Jan
2017 Arlene 19-Apr
2003 Ana 24-Apr
2015 Ana 8-May
2007 Andrea 9-May
2012 Alberto 19-May
2008 Arthur 31-May
1995 Allison 3-Jun
2001 Allison 5-Jun
2013 Andrea 5-Jun
2005 Arlene 10-Jun
2006 Alberto 10-Jun
1999 Arlene 11-Jun
1996 Arthur 17-Jun
2010 Alex 25-Jun
2011 Arlene 28-Jun
1997 Ana 30-Jun
2014 Arthur 1-Jul
2002 Arthur 14-Jul
1998 Alex 27-Jul
2004 Alex 31-Jul
2000 Alberto 3-Aug

Some clamor was made over Adrian being unusually early, but it fizzled out.  Just as it should.  The first actually named tropical storm, Arlene, arrived pretty much on cue.

 

UPDATE: 7/25/2017: Just for chucks and giggles I updated the list to include more modern information. One year was definitely a fluke, all the rest falling pretty much in the normal range. Al Gore’s prognosis of more frequent and stronger hurricanes is as wrong as everything else he predicted.

Cyclical Melting Ice Caps

The melting of sea ice at the North Pole may be the result of a centuries-old natural cycle and not an indicator of man-made global warming, Scottish scientists have found.

After researching the log-books of Arctic explorers spanning the past 300 years, scientists believe that the outer edge of sea ice may expand and contract over regular periods of 60 to 80 years. This change corresponds roughly with known cyclical changes in atmospheric temperature.

The finding opens the possibility that the recent worrying changes in Arctic sea ice are simply the result of standard cyclical movements, and not a harbinger of major climate change.

The amount of sea ice is currently near its lowest point in the cycle and should begin to increase within about five years.

This makes more sense to me than anything I’ve read in months.  Although the effects of man have been predicted to cause about a 1 degree fahrenheit change in temps, the wobbling of the Earth affects climate more.  The changes in solar activity affect temps more.  A lot of things do.  The Earth has gone through many hot and humid stages and many ice ages well before man started burning coal.  For people to now take those obvious cycles and totally dismiss them and attribute all things climate to the activities of Man is totally disingenuous.  There is a balance somewhere in the middle of Earth’s cycles and man’s affect.  What I want to know is how Man affects that cycle.  If we understand how we fit into that cycle then we know what to expect in 20 years.  Totally ignoring that cycle guarantees those projections will be wrong.  If the Earth is entering into another ice age in five years, global warming will become moot.  We can’t burn enough coal and oil to stop that from happening.  What we will need to do is go to more effective and efficient energy to heat our homes and cities.  Nuclear will become more acceptable as the price explodes due to the increasing demands of cooling temperatures.  That will push Man away from burning fossil fuels a lot faster than any chicken-little warnings from Al Gore.

The Thinning Ozone

A dramatic thinning of Earth’s protective ozone layer above the Arctic last year was the result of intense upper-level winds and an extra dose of space weather, scientists said Tuesday.

Ozone, which screens out some of the Sun’s harmful ultraviolet radiation, declined by up to 60 percent in the stratosphere over high northern latitudes in the spring of 2004. Officials issued a health warning earlier this year for residents of the far North.

In a new study, scientists conclude that an intense round of solar storms around Halloween in 2003 was at the root of the problem. Charged particles from the storms triggered chemical reactions that increased the formation of extra nitrogen in the upper stratosphere, some 20 miles up. Nitrogen levels climbed to their highest in at least two decades.

A massive low-pressure system that confines air over the Arctic then conspired to deplete ozone.

Wasn’t someone just trying to tell us it was all because of greenhouse gases?