( Originally posted August 1, 2005, on Spacedream. )
I read this article in the Lexington Herald this morning:
MIAMI – The accumulated power of Atlantic hurricanes has more than doubled in the past 30 years, witha particularly dramatic spike since 1995, and global warming probably is a major cause, according to a study to be published this week…..
Though a connection between global warming and hurricane ferocity might seem logical, the report by a reputable climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is the first to draw a statistical relationship between the two.
OK, there’s the foregone conclusion that there are more and more powerful hurricanes in the last 30 years. global warming’s to blame. No if’s, and’s, or but’s. However, I have an issue with this whole article. ( Surprised? ) Let’s start with the, I would assume, equally reputable National Weather Service. I am going to use their data to get to the point I have. I am not a reputable climatologist at MIT, so someone feel more than free to help me out here. OK? Here we go:
Here is the graph from NOAA of Atlantic hurricanes by decade:
That’s a lot of data. So, I simplified it some. Since the assumption is hurricanes are getting more powerful, I made a power index in descending order by decade. This is what you get:
Whew. NOW I see it. If you take the average power by year, the last decade ranks at the top if you disregard the previous decades.
Folks, this “research” by MIT is so bogus is pathetic. It then even drew conclusions for the future based on this conclusion they reach by ignoring the previous 100 years:
The 2005 season, with a record seven named storms by July 23, provides unpleasant support for that conclusion.
Now, the article does go on to cite some criticisms of Kerry Emanuel. They show that Emanuel cherry picked his data to come to his conclusions. Well DUH!
This is the worst “research” I may have ever seen in my life.
Think about this folks, 2 of 2005’s named storms, that Emanuel cites as evidence to support his conclusion, never made landfall. How much does he want to stake on a guarantee that SOME major storms in the not-too-distant past were never observed? What Emanuel has actually done is prove that there is:
- Scientists willing to skew data to push their philosophical agenda, and:
- Media more than willing to print anything to push their philosophical agenda.
That’s all this research does.
Hell, I won’t even go into the days I recall when people were concerned about a lack of hurricanes in the 90′s.
Another decade has passed since this original post. The facts have only damned Kerry Emanuel’s claim. This current decade has seen ZERO major hurricanes and only a hand full of minor hurricanes. I’m sure MIT rebutted Emanuel’s “findings” at some point. I’m too lazy to look for it. ( And equally sure MIT didn’t. Debunking bogus Global Warming claims isn’t very high on academia’s priorities. Especially with this President’s administration. )