About that Georgia 6th special primary

A lot’s being made of the Georgia 6th special primary to replace Tom Price.  Notably that a Democrat won the “jungle primary”.

  • For starters, I hate elections that dick around with the election process.  I don’t know if parties were held to their party or not.  Some states do, some states don’t.  However, given the nature of the 50% rule, I would imagine the Democrats stuck to their party to get Ossoff over the threshold whereas Republicans were probably voting their party to keep Ossoff from getting there.
  • Second, out of the approximately 700,000 people in that district, less than 200,000 voted.  26% on a special election isn’t terribly bad, but isn’t anything to get excited about for sure.  My gut feeling is the runoff will probably get a fairly higher percentage.  Maybe 35% now that the local Republicans feel challenged.  40% if it gets really heated.  That, I do expect.  This district has in the past, during contested races, hit those percentages easily.
  • When the voters do turn out there, it gets very Republican very quick.  Price routinely got in excess of 200,000 votes.  If his machine gets his people out, this is a blowout.
  • Democrat
    Jon Ossoff
    48.10% 92,390
    Republican
    Karen Handel
    19.80% 37,993
    Republican Bob Gray 10.80% 20,755
    Republican Dan Moody 8.80% 16,994
    Republican Judson Hill 8.80% 16,848
    Republican Kurt Wilson 0.90% 1,812
    Republican David Abroms 0.90% 1,637
    Democrat Ragin Edwards 0.30% 502
    Democrat Ron Slotin 0.30% 488
    Republican Bruce LeVell 0.20% 455
    Republican Mohammad Ali Bhuiyan 0.20% 414
    Republican Keith Grawert 0.20% 414
    Republican Amy Kremer 0.20% 349
    Republican William Llop 0.20% 326
    Democrat Rebecca Quigg 0.20% 304
    Democrat Richard Keatley 0.10% 227

    Although Ossoff did well, the party as a whole still was outvoted.  With only one candidate to either support or not, those percentages weigh heavily against Ossoff.

    Republicans 97997
    Democrats 93911
  • Although Ossoff has raised millions, almost all of it has come from places that can’t vote in this race. That doesn’t really do as much for him as you’d think.  Although it buys tons of advertising, people very quickly tune that out.  There’s only so much election day advertising anyone can do to actually get their voters out to vote.  Secondly, don’t think for one second Handel won’t use the outside meddling against Ossoff.  That is already a theme and they haven’t even gotten one-on-one yet.  I’d have Ossoff explaining his donors for the next month.  A lot has been made of him not living in the District, that only adds to the outsider meddling theme.  Thirdly, we’ve already seen his best shot in my opinion.  Eight million dollars got 90,000 votes.  My bet is going back to the same well just got harder.  It’ll be there, but not to the tune of another $8 million.  Now that Handel has the focus of the RNC, look for that funding to counter Ossoff’s DNC.  People have to understand that no Republican had the support of their national party.  That was effectively $8,000,000 to zero.
  • Bottom line, Ossoff’s one serious chance was to win this goof-ball jungle primary.  Unless Handel is completely inept, which I have no clue at this point, she wins by 10% or more.